In an extraordinary display of competitiveness and parity, the Dunsborough Sharks and Augusta Margaret River Hawks colts teams recently played to their third consecutive draw in the South West Football League, marking a statistical anomaly that mathematician Adam Spencer describes as a one-in-a-million event.

During their latest matchup on a Saturday, the Dunsborough Sharks led for a significant portion of the game, demonstrating strong performance early on. However, a vigorous comeback from the Augusta Margaret River Hawks turned the tide in the fourth quarter, allowing them to briefly seize the lead. In a thrilling finish, a rushed behind by the Sharks leveled the score in the final moments, leading to an electrifying conclusion of 65 to 65.

This latest match adds to a growing list of evenly contested games between the two teams. In fact, their previous encounters last season ended in identical deadlocks, with both teams unable to be separated. The Sharks and Hawks have now faced each other a total of seven times since Dunsborough joined the competition in 2022, and remarkably, nearly half of those games have ended in draws.

According to the South West Football League, this series of results is likely a first in the history of national football, underscoring the intense rivalry and skill displayed by both teams. Spencer noted that the scoring patterns in these games have been eerily similar, with the first round last year seeing scores of 8-4 to 8-4, the second round at 9-5 to 9-5, followed by the latest match of 10-5 to 10-5. Spencer, who specializes in the mathematical odds of sporting events, explained that while around one percent of games in the AFL/VFL are typically drawn, the odds of two teams drawing consecutively three times is approximately one in ten thousand.

Dr. Spencer elaborated on the difficulty of calculating the exact probability of this occurring in other leagues across Australia. Given the vast number of leagues and the hundreds of thousands of games played annually—estimated at about 100,000—he asserted there’s a 95 percent chance this specific scenario has never transpired before.

Dunsborough Colts coach Steve Dale reflected on the surreal nature of the recent match, acknowledging his initial disappointment at not securing a victory. “It took a while to dawn on me what had happened,” he stated. This draw marked a first for him in both his coaching and playing career. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Grant Garstone, expressed amusement at the unique coaching dynamic of facing a different coach each time they compete, emphasizing the level playing field as a significant factor in their matches.

Both coaches have committed to breaking this draw streak in their upcoming match scheduled for August. Coach Dale expressed hope that the upcoming encounter would attract a sizable audience, with many spectators eager to see if the trend continues. “I don’t want to do four in a row, that’s for sure,” noted Garstone, underscoring the competitive spirit driving both teams.

As the Dunsborough Sharks and Augusta Margaret River Hawks prepare for their next showdown, the anticipation builds not only for the fans but also for the players and coaches involved. Will they break the cycle of draws, or will this unprecedented statistical feat continue to capture the imagination of football enthusiasts?