The ongoing trade conflict between the United States and a multitude of its significant trading partners has ignited a wave of apprehensions and forecasts regarding the likelihood of an imminent global recession. Economists who provided insights to CBC News have indicated that such a recession is virtually unavoidable unless the U.S. administration shifts its strategy in the near future.

Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, expressed his concerns during an interview on CBC News's Power & Politics. He stated, "I don't know how we would avoid it. This is a pretty dark scenario, both for the U.S. and, by extension, Canada and the rest of the world." His remarks underscore the gravity of the situation, suggesting that the repercussions of the current trade policies are destined to ripple across the global economy.

In light of President Donald Trump's recent announcement regarding extensive global tariffs, J.P. Morgan has significantly raised its estimate of the probability of a global recession to 60 percentan increase from 40 percent just a few months earlier in March. Moshe Lander, a senior lecturer of economics at Concordia University, drew parallels between today's trade war and historical events, stating, "We haven't seen this type of tariff trade war in a hundred years," referencing the tariffs imposed following the stock market crash of 1929, which ultimately backfired as trading partners retaliated.

A recession is traditionally characterized by two consecutive quarters of declining GDP in a nation. However, a global recession entails similar downturns across numerous economies worldwide. According to Tu Nguyen, an economist with RSM Canada, while there is no definitive threshold for the number of countries that need to be adversely affected, the current situation showcases major economies like China and the European Union grappling with trade uncertainties due to the heavy tariffs imposed by the U.S. Nguyen stated, "If the U.S. does not change its policy stance on tariffs we would expect a recession to be defined in the next six months." She further noted, "I think it's reasonable to say that we are entering one as we speak."

Zandi anticipates that the effects of a recession would become palpable in the U.S. by June or July if Trump does not find a way to de-escalate the situation. The ongoing clash between the U.S. and Chinatwo economic giantsserves as a significant barrier to global economic stability. Recent developments saw China retaliating against U.S. tariffs, prompting even more punitive measures from the Trump administration. With the latest tariffs expected to take effect on Wednesday, the rates on certain imports from China will soar to a staggering 104 percent.

Zandi warned, "If both countries keep raising their tariffs tit for tat, we're going to end up with very little trade between the two countries, and the fallout from that is just going to be very difficult to overcome." This cycle of retaliation has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions and further destabilize the international economy.

It is crucial to note that the impact of a global recession is not uniformly distributed across all nations. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, Canada experienced a downturn in economic activity but managed relatively well compared to other nations. However, the current situation poses a more precarious challenge for Canada. Andrew DiCapua, principal economist with the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, remarked that while Canada has so far avoided the immediate effects of the latest tariffs, the reality remains that a recession in the U.S. would severely affect both Canada and Mexico due to their intertwined economies.

The repercussions of global tariffs on Canada's GDP and job market may not be immediately evident, but early indications are concerning. For instance, March data revealed a loss of 33,000 jobs amid growing fears related to tariffs, reversing the positive growth experienced at the end of the previous year. Economists predict that as tariffs make goods less accessible and more expensive, consumer spending will contract, leading to a decline in demand and an uptick in layoffs across various sectors.

DiCapua noted that layoffs are already emerging, particularly in industries closely linked to U.S. supply chains, such as automotive manufacturing. The potential for reduced hiring and increased business closures could hinder job mobility and wage growth during a recession, while consumer prices continue to rise. According to Zandi, "The typical American household will have to spend $2,100 [US] more a year to buy the same goods as they are today," should the current trajectory remain unchanged.

Despite the bleak outlook, there is still a pathway to avert a global recession, hinging primarily on the U.S. making substantial reductions or outright eliminations of its tariffs. Nguyen emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, "The off-ramp to avoid this has to come from the U.S. The longer this goes on, the more layoffs will happen, the more factories would just shut down because they can't operate under the new tariffs' rules." In this context, the Trump administration has initiated talks with South Korea and Japan, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled for a visit next week. Yet, as it stands, all country-specific tariffs are proceeding as planned.

Nguyen reminded readers, "The important thing to remember is that this is entirely self-induced by the U.S. Its not something that we were blindsided by, like the COVID-19 pandemic, for example. But it's having an impact on the entire world." The outcomes of these policies could shape the economic landscape for years to come, stressing the need for immediate and coherent action.