The barrage of retaliatory tariffs from China and the US could end quickly once talks start, given that both sides are open to dialogue. That was the assessment of a number of observers after an exchange of escalating duties in the past week. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump raised levies on Chinese goods to 104 per cent, before increasing them to 125 per cent the next day, later clarifying the cumulative figure at 145 per cent. That brought the effective cumulative tariff to about 156 per cent. Beijing countered with new levies on US goods of 125 per cent, on top of earlier-imposed tariffs, taking the cumulative total to nearly 148 per cent. Trump ended the week with a 90-day pause on fresh tariffs for most of the United States’ trading partners, leaving a baseline duty of 10 per cent in place for the period. However, the one big exception was China. Despite the escalation in tariffs, Beijing and Washington remain on course for dialogue and the retaliation could end if talks resume, according to Li Cheng, founding director of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong. “This current [tariffs] battle probably … might last for a while, but you cannot eliminate the possibility Donald Trump will negotiate with China,” Li said. “We only see the superficial. Donald Trump probably cannot afford to make China an enemy at this point. That explains why Trump constantly expresses interest in visiting China.” He said the communication process could still be derailed by an unexpected event but “in the general pattern”, the tit-for-tat tariff battle would end through renewed dialogue between Beijing and Washington. Trump has repeatedly expressed a willingness to negotiate with Beijing, telling his cabinet on Thursday that he “would love to be able to make a deal” with China. China’s Ministry of Commerce has also said Beijing’s door is open for talks but has also vowed that the country will “fight to the end”. Li said that if talks did resume, an agreement could be reached quite quickly. “[The talking process] will probably be months, which is already too long, probably weeks or two or three months at a maximum, and both sides claim victory,” he said. He said Washington could make the first move behind the scenes, because it initiated the tariff attacks. However, once both sides received an invitation to negotiate, “both sides will claim the best for each other’s side”. He added that if negotiations were to resume, Washington would likely seek economic and geopolitical concessions from Beijing, including increased imports of American agricultural and energy products, and a more cooperative stand from China on Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Korean peninsula – moves that align with Trump’s foreign policy objectives. While there is no sign the presidents of either country are ready to make that call, there have been discussions at lower levels in the past few weeks. Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng met John Thornton, chair emeritus of the Brookings Institution, in Beijing on Tuesday, to “exchange views on bilateral economic and trade relations and the macroeconomic situation”, according to state news agency Xinhua. And late last month, US Senator Steve Daines, a strong supporter of Trump, met He and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in the Chinese capital, with Beijing stressing the importance of economic ties with Washington. Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies at King’s College, London, said Beijing and Washington would have to negotiate “at some point”. He said the US’ steep tariff increases seemed “a way of Trump getting China to the table”. “I think China can endure for a few weeks, and it has quite a strong incentive to face down the Americans,” Brown said. He said the “high level of informality” in the Trump administration suggested that there were some background talks but it was unclear if people like Thornton had good access to Trump or would be useful in such circumstances. Zheng Yongnian, dean of the school of public policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Shenzhen campus, said China should focus on the bigger picture, looking beyond the tariff war to the fundamental contest of economic strength. “Our goal should be to build an industrial system with strong economic resilience,” Zheng was quoted as saying by Xiakedao, a social media account run by the overseas edition Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily. “Only in this way can we secure a dominant position in the long-term competition with the US.”