As the conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, fresh developments on the front lines have seen Ukrainian troops carrying out targeted strikes within Russian territory. The situation has been increasingly complex, marked by conflicting reports regarding territorial control and military actions from both sides.

On Tuesday, the Russian-appointed governor of the eastern Luhansk region of Ukraine, Leonid Pasechnik, announced that Russian forces had fully conquered the area. This claim, if proven true, would signify a critical milestone, as it would make Luhansk the first of the four eastern Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia to be entirely under Russian control. Pasechnik stated, “Just a couple of days ago, I received a report that the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic has been 100 percent liberated,” during an interview on Russia’s TV Channel One.

However, this assertion is not universally accepted. Russian military reporters and independent observers argue that two villages within Luhansk remain free from Russian occupation. Furthermore, it’s essential to note that the region had previously been claimed as conquered back in 2022, before being partially reclaimed by Ukrainian forces during a significant counteroffensive in September of the same year.

The ongoing advances by Russian troops have dealt a serious blow to Ukraine, which has been fighting to maintain its territorial integrity for more than three years since the onset of the full-scale invasion. On the same day that Pasechnik made his announcement, the United States revealed it would not be delivering certain military weapons that had been promised to Ukraine under President Joe Biden’s administration. The White House justified this decision by stating, “This decision was made to put America’s interests first following a review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe.”

This past weekend, Russian forces reached the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, marking a notable achievement by conquering the entirety of the Donetsk region, despite the fact that approximately one-third of it still remains under Ukrainian control. Such territorial milestones, while significant, may not lead to any strategic breakthroughs or a change in momentum for Russian forces, who have been slowly advancing.

Reports from the Russian Ministry of Defence indicated that its troops had captured several villages, including Zaporizhzhia, Perebudova, Shevchenko, and Yalta, in the Donetsk region. Following these small yet persistent victories, Russia has fostered a sense of an unyielding advance in its military operations.

According to Igor Korotchenko, the editor of National Defense magazine, Russian military forces are now focused on establishing a buffer zone that could reach up to 120 kilometers (approximately 75 miles) deep into Ukrainian territory. This concept of a buffer zone has been spoken of before by various Russian officials and pro-Kremlin commentators. Just last year, deputy commander Oleg Ivanov had suggested the need for a buffer zone of no less than 20 kilometers deep into Ukraine to protect Russian territory from Ukrainian counterattacks.

Despite the Kremlin's official annexation of only Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he views all of Ukraine as Russian territory. Many analysts believe that the push for buffer zones is a convenient pretext for further territorial expansion.

In a significant shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on June 30 that Ukraine would be withdrawing from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans the use of antipersonnel landmines. This decision, according to Zelenskyy, will allow Ukraine to manufacture and use landmines for defensive purposes, stating, “Antipersonnel mines ... very often have no alternative as a tool for defense.”

On the offensive front, Ukraine has also been achieving tactical successes inside Russia, utilizing long-range weapons effectively. Reports from June 27-28 indicated that Ukrainian drones successfully struck the Kirovske airfield, destroying at least three attack helicopters. Additionally, the Ukrainian General Staff reported the demolition of at least four Sukhoi-34 fighters at Russia’s Marinovka airbase, which have been pivotal in Russian operations against Ukraine.

Intelligence sources further revealed that Ukraine may have eliminated a Russian intelligence base in the Bryansk region. President Zelenskyy noted the ongoing Russian investment in unmanned aerial capabilities and shared concerns that these developments indicate an impending ground war against Ukraine.

The conflict saw an escalation in Russian unmanned air strikes, with 447 drones and 90 missiles targeting Ukrainian cities in one of the largest assaults to date. Ukrainian air forces reported successfully neutralizing all but one drone and 38 missiles, showcasing their defensive capabilities amidst increasing threats.

The scale of these attacks has raised alarms among military experts in Ukraine, with suspicions that the Russians aim to extend their operations beyond the front lines into civilian areas. Victoria Vdovychenko, an expert from the Cambridge University Centre for Geopolitics, noted that the Russian strategy seems to target even residential areas, suggesting a significant escalation in the conflict.

During a recent address, President Zelenskyy discussed the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s air defense systems, particularly in light of increasing Russian drone attacks. He emphasized that most of the €9 billion ($11 billion) in military aid promised by Germany this year would be directed towards enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities. He underscored the need to align the scaling of Ukraine’s defense production with the realities of the ongoing conflict, stating, “The priority is drones, interceptor drones and long-range strike drones.”