Elbows Up. The phrase – which originates from ice-hockey – had become the unofficial slogan of Canadians opposed to Donald Trump’s attempt to press-gang their nation into becoming the 51st US state. And in one of the most stunning turn arounds in Western political history, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has successfully co-opted it and elbowed his way to the Premiership. At the start of the year, under Justin Trudeau’s wearily-woke leadership, the ruling Liberal Party was dead and buried. Or not so much dead and buried as lying mummified a couple of hundred feet beneath the British Columbia icefield. The shock resignation of Trudeau's finance Minister Chrystia Freedland had torn his party in two. Libertarian populist Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives enjoyed a seemingly unassailable 23-point poll lead. A MAGA style blue-wave was predicted to sweep the across the Canadian prairies and drive the Liberals into the Hudson Bay. But then the original MAGA leader opened his mouth. Canada would be subject to 'economic force' aimed at absorbing it into the United States, Trump declared. ‘You get rid of that artificially drawn line, and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security.’ Mark Carney, who had replaced Trudeau following his resignation, did take a look. And he liked what he saw. ‘Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer’ he declared moments after his election as his party’s new leader in March. ‘Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered. Because a person who worships at the altar of Donald Trump will kneel before him, not stand up to him.’ In that moment the election was over. Canada raised its collective biceps. And Poilievre’s poll lead disintegrated. There are obviously dangers in attempting to draw a host of conclusions from yesterday’s poll. Canada and the US have a unique relationship. The Canadian people have been subject to what even by Trump’s standards was an egregious assault on their national dignity and sovereignty. The early singling out of Canada for the imposition of penal tariffs gave an added immediacy and potency to the Trump threat. But there are lessons to be learnt none-the-less. One of the most important of which is that if you ignore the rhetoric and bombast, and do indeed opt to stand up to Donald Trump, he will invariably fold. Since his inauguration Trump has delivered a series of ultimata. He has ordered Canadians to acquiesce to US statehood. He has told the people of Greenland they must agree to become a US colony. He has ordered Hamas to release all their hostages. He has warned the Houthis to stop attacking western shipping. He has told Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. And on every single occasion he has been ignored. At which point he has shrugged, pouted a little, then moved on to find an easier target to threaten and bully. A further lesson to learn is that the oft parroted sentiment that Donald Trump is a master of ‘the art of the deal’ is nothing more than a self-serving conceit. As Mark Carney proved, negotiating with Trump is like negotiating with a child. Once you steel yourself to the screaming and the tantrums, the candy can be appropriated at will. In the run up to polling day, reports began to circulate about how the newly elected Liberal leader had quietly pointed out to Trump that if Canada and other governments opted to sell US bonds it may precipitate a financial crisis. He was also clear that Canada and her allies were now aligned on retaliatory tariffs, and were going to use them. Faced with the cold reality of the market forces arrayed against him – and more particularly, a former central bank chief who actually understood them – Trump blinked. For those politicians looking in amazement at Carney’s Lazarus like deliverance there is a third even more important lesson to be learnt. Which is the extent to which Donald Trump is now electorally radioactive. Over the last month people have been pointing to the seemingly staggering inversion in the Canadian opinion polls. But they may have been slightly less amazed if they’d taken a look at the equally staggering inversion currently taking place in the US polls. Since his inauguration there has been a huge amount of hype – peddled chiefly by Trump’s social media propagandists – about the energy, vigour and radicalism that have defined his first 100 days in office. What there has been less discussion about is how this radical mania is being utterly and comprehensively rejected by the same voters who handed him his victory last November. On the day Trump took office he enjoyed the approval of 52 per cent of Americans, with 40 per cent expressing disapproval. Now those numbers have been completely reversed. 53 per cent of those surveyed now express dissatisfaction with their President and his actions – a record for this stage of a presidency – whilst only 44 per cent approve. Strangely, bullying the US’s closest allies, waging his tariff war on the penguins of the Heard and McDonald Islands and capitulating to Vladimir Putin appears not to be the way to endear oneself to electors on either side of that inconveniently positioned North American border. But for some equally strange reason our own politicians seem unable to recognise it. Within Downing Street, forelock-tugging is replacing cold diplomacy. Plans for an unprecedented second Presidential state visit continue apace, and it has emerged Government officials have been quietly leaning on the Royal and Ancient Golf Club to hold the Open Championship to Trump’s Turnberry course. Meanwhile Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has reportedly issued an edict prohibiting members of her Shadow Cabinet from voicing any criticism of Trump. And Nigel Farage continues to believe his path to Downing Street will be eased by acting as Trump’s favourite court jester. They would do better to study the Carney Campaign. In the final week of the election he appeared in a video featuring him standing alongside Canadian favourite son Mike Myers, the star of the Austin Powers franchise. Standing beside an ice-rink the two men didn’t talk about the economy. Or housing. Or crime. Instead, they quizzed one another about the intricacies of hockey strategy – Carney played as goaltender for Oxford and Harvard and was known as Carnage Carney for his brutal approach. Then the camera panned to the back of Myers hockey shirt. It was adorned with the number '51' and the word 'Never'. Forget the forelock tugging Sir Keir. There’s only one real way to deal with Donald Trump. Elbows up.