What another disappointing first-round loss means for Giannis and the Bucks: 'I don't know'

GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO SAT on the sidelines lost in a thousand-mile stare. After a foul on the floor, television cameras panned over to the Milwaukee Bucks' two-time MVP sitting on the bench. There were nine minutes remaining in the fourth quarter in Game 4 of their first-round series against the Indiana Pacers. It was the first time Antetokounmpo had taken a break since halftime. He had played all 12 minutes of the third quarter -- scoring 18 points on 5-of-7 shooting, even knocking down 8 of his 9 free throws. Antetokounmpo even added 8 rebounds and 2 assists, scoring or assisting on 24 of the Bucks' 32 third-quarter points. It was a masterful performance, but ultimately it didn't matter; the Bucks had been outscored in the quarter 38-32 as Indiana increased its lead. Milwaukee trailed by 20 points as Antetokounmpo sat, his arms at his side, his gaze unflinching as he licked and pursed his lips -- the NBA world watching his every move, hoping to gain some kind of insight into his inner thoughts. Still very much in his prime, he averaged 33.8 points, 14.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists on 62% shooting in the series, the first time he had been healthy in the playoffs in three years. He averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists in 67 games this season. Yet, injuries had derailed the Bucks again. Antetokounmpo, 30, had watched his co-star, Damian Lillard, crumble to the ground earlier in the evening, a torn Achilles tendon having ended his night and his season. Several Bucks acknowledged after the game that the team felt deflated after watching Lillard suffer such a catastrophic injury -- one that not only puts next season in jeopardy, but, at 34, his career as well. The Bucks lost Game 4 129-103. They had another game to play two days later, but despite a triple-double from Antetokounmpo in Game 5 on Tuesday night, the Bucks lost again, this time in overtime, 119-118, ending their season in a third consecutive first-round exit. Antetokounmpo's thoughts entering a crucial offseason in Milwaukee will have franchise and league-altering ramifications. Nothing else truly matters. Multiple sources have indicated to ESPN throughout the season that Antetokounmpo remains happy in Milwaukee, that he deeply respects Lillard and was pleased with the progress they made as a duo this season, when they were the highest-scoring twosome in the NBA, averaging 58.4 points per game, and helped rally Milwaukee from 2-8 to win the Emirates NBA Cup in December. Still, the Bucks and Antetokounmpo are scheduled to meet after the season to discuss both his future and the future plans for the team, sources told ESPN's Shams Charania. It's an annual meeting between the two sides, but one that carries a different tone heading into the summer after the Bucks failed to win a playoff series even with their star putting up a dominant performance. Antetokounmpo has long said his goal is to compete for championships in his prime, and the Bucks have acted accordingly. But the cost of constantly doing so has been high, and the margin for error shrinks every year and with every decision. The talent around Milwaukee's superstar has eroded since winning the 2021 NBA championship. The Bucks have won only one playoff series since their title, and they just lost in the first round for the third consecutive season, the past two to a rival Pacers team that seems to have passed Milwaukee by. "It doesn't feel good, man," Antetokounmpo said after Game 5. "It doesn't feel good. I just got to look myself in the mirror and I just have to be better. I have to be better." Injuries have compromised each Bucks postseason since the championship. In 2022, Khris Middleton sprained his MCL in the second game of the first round and missed the rest of the playoffs; the Bucks lost in seven games to the Boston Celtics in the second round. Sources inside the Bucks organization still insist they had the best overall team that season. Milwaukee had the best record in the NBA during the regular season before Antetokounmpo injured his back in Game 1 of the 2023 playoffs, forcing him to sit out Game 2. Although he returned for the rest of the series, the No. 8-seeded Miami Heat upset the top-seeded Bucks. A week before the start of the 2024 playoffs, Antetokounmpo strained his calf and never appeared in the postseason. In the two seasons since they acquired Lillard, forming what the Bucks hoped would be the most formidable duo in basketball, Antetokounmpo and Lillard have played two full playoff games together. Less than two weeks ago, Antetokounmpo appeared on his brother Thanasis' podcast and reiterated his competitive desire. "Me not having a second championship -- I look back at my career and everybody can say, 'Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever, but me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I'm letting down myself," Antetokounmpo said. It is a window into Antetokounmpo's mind, and one that has fueled Milwaukee's high-pressure, high-stakes decision-making over the past seven years. Still, each time Antetokounmpo's future with the Bucks has been in question, he has chosen to return to Milwaukee. He has signed two extensions -- a supermax contract in 2020 and again in 2023, and he is under contract until the 2027-28 season. But after nine consecutive trips to the playoffs, the second longest active streak among teams, the Bucks have few pathways available to improve the team, leading to a scintillating question teams across the league are debating: If Giannis Antetokounmpo wins a second ring, will it be in Milwaukee -- or not? Sitting at the lectern postgame, he knew the question was coming. "I'm not going to do this," Antetokounmpo said. "I'm not going to do that. I know how it's going to translate. I don't know, man. I wish I was still playing. I wish I was still competing and going back and working out. "I don't know." ANTETOKOUNMPO AND LILLARD'S pick-and-roll chemistry was at the top of coach Doc Rivers' to-do list upon taking over the team last January. He'd get his starting five on the court during shootarounds, but line them up five-on-zero while putting his star duo on one side and forcing them to run repeated actions with one another. There was no need for such heavy-handedness this season. Teammates saw how the two began to initiate dialogue with one another freely, speaking directly as to when and where they wanted the ball and being less concerned about encroaching on each other's territory. "Last year it was like everybody saying what we need to do," Lillard told ESPN earlier this season. "'Oh, we want to see this. They should do this, they should do that.'" "This year, we just know each other. It's not forced or it's not rushed where people are saying what we need to do." The Bucks made the trade to acquire Lillard about a week before the start of training camp in 2023, a radical roster shift that didn't provide any grace period. Antetokounmpo and Lillard were instantly paired with the best teammates they'd ever played with. However, the two proved to be an unexpectedly clunky fit in the first year. In 2023-24, the two averaged 1.14 points per direct pick, solid but unspectacular production and a factor that led to first-year coach Adrian Griffin's dismissal, despite a 30-13 record. Rivers was brought in because of his history coaching stars. "I don't think anyone wanted to step on any toes early on when they first got here," Bucks center Brook Lopez told ESPN. "Now you can see they're working together." When the Bucks started this season slowly, Lillard looked to Antetokounmpo for cues. When the two-time MVP showed no panic, Lillard stayed the course and the duo stepped up to lead the team to the NBA Cup crown in Las Vegas in December. "[Antetokounmpo is] invested in us as a pair," Lillard told ESPN in March. "I didn't think he wasn't last year, but this year we've had so many conversations where it's like I can see where he's [like] we got to do this, we got to do that. As opposed to us trying to figure some s--- out [individually]. It's always, it's what we got to do. It's a back-and-forth." Individually, both Lillard and Antetokounmpo had strong seasons. For the second year in a row, Antetokounmpo posted 30 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists on 60% shooting. Lillard averaged 24.9 points and 7.1 assists on 45% shooting (38% from 3), despite being limited to 58 games, the second fewest in a season in his career. And while their improved chemistry was evident, that unstoppable pick-and-roll never materialized. Instead, Lillard and Antetokounmpo posted a nearly identical, very average 1.11 points per direct pick, and the team had a plus-4.7 net efficiency in their minutes together, poor for a duo of their star power. "It's just so much better, but I still think it should be better," Rivers said March 20 before a game against the Lakers. "We don't get in enough of them, but we've really been stressing that over the last three or four weeks." Lillard did not play that night, out with what the team listed as a calf injury. He had complained of discomfort to the team's training staff, which Rivers said the team found odd because he didn't have any of the physical symptoms. As Lillard rested, the Bucks' medical staff decided he should get an MRI for further evaluation. The results showed deep vein thrombosis in Lillard's calf, the blood clot that would end his regular season. Lillard missed the team's final 14 regular-season games and Game 1 of the playoffs. "In a lot of ways you can make a case that was lifesaving," Rivers said during a podcast appearance in March. The Bucks hailed Lillard's return a little more than a month later as unprecedented, and he gave the team all he could in two full games back, averaging 7.0 points and 4.7 assists in three games on 6-of-27 shooting (3-for-16 from 3), before he suffered a torn Achilles in Game 4, an injury that has put the future of the franchise and Lillard's career into question. "I have so much respect for him," Antetokounmpo said after Game 4. "Dealing with what he was dealing with the whole year. Finding out about his calf and then staying in shape, fighting through, spending extra hours, working on his body, working on his game, being able to come back in Game 2. Game 3, he helped us win the game. But not just that, he's been so vocal. He'll watch film, pulls everybody together. "I always had respect for him before we became teammates, but now my respect level is much higher." Meanwhile, Rivers, who was hired to bring out the best of the two stars, has gone 65-53 (.551) in two seasons as head coach, without any playoff series victories to show for it. "I would love this team full," Rivers said after the game Tuesday night. "I really do. I would love this team where Dame was healthy and all that, but that wasn't in the cards this year. What was in the cards was we found a lot of players through the year because of all the adversity that we had. "AJ Green came out of nowhere, and he's a sensational player. Gary Trent Jr. has proven that he's not only just a solid NBA player, but better than that. Bobby [Portis] playing heavy minutes at the five. Jericho [Sims] -- another guy that we picked up and he turned out to be a force. "[Kevin Porter Jr.] is going to be solid for us. He's proven that he's an NBA player, and Kuz, who didn't have a great series, will help us. We never got him into the position where he could have been more successful. We will do that and he will be a successful player for us moving forward." Antetokounmpo voiced support for the second-year coach, his fourth in 12 seasons in Milwaukee. "I love Doc," he said. "He's a great, great human being. Great dude, knows how to up your spirit, knows always the right thing to say at the right moment. I love him, man. Not only as a coach, but as a person." IN THE MIDDLE of their series against the Pacers, the Bucks rewarded general manager Jon Horst with a contract extension, positioning him to remain as the team's lead decision-maker as they prepare for a critical summer. Horst's contract was set to expire this summer and the team was motivated to retain him after they barred him from interviewing for the Pistons' head of basketball operations job when it was vacant last summer, sources told ESPN. Milwaukee has the league's second-best regular-season winning percentage (.647, trailing only the Boston Celtics) since Horst took over as general manager in June 2017. The Bucks have made 25 trades since Horst took over, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks, acquiring Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, Nikola Mirotic, Jrue Holiday, P.J. Tucker, Grayson Allen, Serge Ibaka, Jae Crowder, Lillard and, most recently, Kyle Kuzma. Those trades have cost Milwaukee seven first-round picks, three years of pick swaps and 18 second-rounders. Their first-round pick this season was given up in the trade to acquire Holiday back in 2020. Holiday has since been traded (in the deal to acquire Lillard) and won a championship with the Boston Celtics. He won more playoff series last season with Boston than Milwaukee has played over the past three seasons combined. The next first-round pick the Bucks control is six years from now, in 2031. Milwaukee was unwilling to include that pick during discussions at this past trade deadline, sources told ESPN. While doing so might prove prudent, it left the Bucks without the ability to make significant roster improvements at the deadline, despite inquiring about several former All-Stars throughout the season, such as Zach LaVine before he was traded from Chicago, sources said. The team settled on Kuzma, who won a championship with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020 and was acquired from the Washington Wizards in a move that dealt away franchise icon Khris Middleton. Middleton's availability had been limited in recent seasons, appearing in only 37 games this season, including 14 after the deadline for the rebuilding Wizards. In addition to Kuzma's dependability, Horst also lauded him as a player who would help elevate the team's two best players. "It's more about how do we make the top two guys their best selves," Horst said after the deadline in February. "And how does everyone else play their role around them." But Kuzma was a liability on the floor during the playoffs. In Game 1, he became the sixth player in NBA history to play at least 20 minutes and record 0 points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in a playoff game. His production in the series did not improve. By Game 3, his minutes had dwindled to less than 20 per game. He averaged 5.8 points, 2.2 rebounds and 0.8 assists in the series on 34.3% shooting (1-of-10 from 3) and was benched in Game 5. His lack of shooting often stifled the Bucks offense. Kuzma shot 30.7% from 3 this season, fourth worst among qualified players. The Bucks also traded away AJ Johnson, the No. 23 pick in the 2024 draft, in the deal to acquire Kuzma. The 20-year-old guard showed promise with Washington to close the season, scoring a career-high 20 points March 27. It is the kind of late draft selection paramount to lengthening a championship cycle -- and something the Bucks have not capitalized on during this recent run. The Bucks are heading into next season with just four players -- Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Kuzma and little-used rookie Tyler Smith -- signed to guaranteed contracts. Three players -- Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton and Porter -- hold player options. If those three all pick up their options, the Bucks will already be over the projected $154.6 million salary cap before even filling out the other eight spots on their roster. Lillard is owed $113 million over the next two seasons, which includes a $63.2 million player option for the 2026-27 season. The trade for Kuzma allowed the Bucks to get under the restrictive second apron of the collective bargaining agreement, a fact that Horst that downplayed at the deadline but that could prove important this summer as the team evaluates its options. But the gap between the Bucks and the top teams in the East has been exposed. Milwaukee went 0-10 this season against the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference. And in the 19 matchups between the Pacers and Bucks over the past two seasons, the Bucks are 7-12, including 3-8 in the postseason. Horst has pulled off move after move in a constant effort to take advantage of Antetokounmpo's prime. But the Celtics, Cavaliers, Knicks, Pacers, Pistons and Magic have all either eclipsed the Bucks or are threatening to do so -- and the outlook in Milwaukee is as bleak as it has been since they drafted Antetokounmpo in 2013.