Farage hoping for by-election bullseye - and if Labour cling on it'll be a great escape In his early years, the teenage darts sensation Luke "the Nuke" Littler lived in Runcorn. And as the polls closed at 10pm, Nigel Farage and Reform UK were hoping to score a by-election bullseye in the previously safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby. After all, prior to polling day Farage had campaigned in the constituency three times and Sir Keir Starmer hadn't visited once – a stark and highly significant contrast. The 18-year-old darts world champion isn't this constituency's only former famous resident, however. Farage also campaigned in the constituency on polling day as his team forecast a narrow win for Reform UK. One Reform insider told Sky News: "I think it will be within 1,000 votes, either way, but I reckon we will edge it. "To use a Farageism: ‘We’ll win it by a gnat's knob.’" James Bond star Daniel Craig lived in the market town of Frodsham in the constituency when his father was the landlord of a local pub. And given Reform UK's surge in opinion polls, for Labour and the Conservatives Farage is the Bond villain of British politics, his toothy grin hiding a dangerous menace. The pop star Gary Barlow was also raised in Frodsham. And come the end of the night, the message from Farage and Reform UK could well be: "Take that, Labour!" The by-election count isn't taking place in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency, though. We're at the DCBL Halton Stadium, home of rugby league's former giants Widnes Vikings, across the River Mersey from Runcorn. Tonight it's the hordes of Reform UK activists who've descended on this constituency who are the piratical raiders threatening to give Sir Keir Starmer and Labour a bloody nose. If Reform do triumph here in the first parliamentary by-election since the general election, as pollsters and bookies are predicting, there will be two key factors to blame for a Labour humiliation. One, according to locals canvassed by Sky News, is Rachel Reeves' hugely unpopular winter fuel payment cut, which has angered older voters in the constituency. The second is the circumstances that brought about this by-election, the brutal assault on a constituent by the former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, caught in its full horror on CCTV pictures, which it’s claimed appalled many voters here. Amesbury had a majority of 14,696 over Reform UK in last July's general election, with the Conservatives in third place. But that Labour majority looks extremely vulnerable tonight. Given the government's unpopularity because of issues like the winter fuel allowance, the by-election looks Reform UK's to lose. If Labour does cling on, it will truly be a great escape. And Reform UK - unlike the ever-accurate Luke Littler - will have missed their target here.