Democrats Could Flip Texas Senate Seat for First Time in 33 Years, Says GOP Poll- In a surprising turn of events, Democrats could win the Texas Senate race for the first time in more than three decades, according to an internal Republican poll reviewed by the Houston Chronicle. The poll suggests that Democrat Colin Allred may have a real shot at defeating Republican Ken Paxton in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. If this were to happen in the 2026 midterm elections, Allred would become the first Democratic U.S. Senator from Texas since Robert Krueger briefly held the seat in 1993. The numbers point to a potential political shift in a state that’s long been a Republican stronghold. Could Colin Allred Really Beat Ken Paxton in a Senate Race? According to a Republican-commissioned poll obtained by the Houston Chronicle, 52% of likely Texas voters said they would support Colin Allred in a matchup against Attorney General Ken Paxton. Only 37% backed Paxton, who has faced multiple legal controversies over the years. The poll was conducted in mid-April and surveyed 1,000 likely voters in Texas. What’s even more notable is that the poll was conducted by a firm founded by Brad Parscale, Donald Trump’s former 2020 campaign manager—suggesting the results weren’t meant to favor Democrats. The survey did not include other Democratic contenders, focusing solely on Allred versus Paxton. Allred, who previously lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz in November 2024 with 44.6% of the vote compared to Cruz’s 53.1%, has said he’s seriously considering a run for Cornyn’s seat. Before running for Senate, Allred served as the U.S. Representative for Texas’s 32nd congressional district from 2019 to 2025. A former NFL linebacker, he’s built a reputation as a moderate Democrat with crossover appeal. Why Is Ken Paxton Polling So Poorly with General Voters? Although Ken Paxton has strong support within his party, he continues to face baggage that might hurt him in a general election. In a separate poll conducted by the same Republican pollster, 605 GOP primary voters were surveyed, and the results showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 17 percentage points in a primary matchup. That suggests Paxton is still popular among Republican base voters. But among the broader electorate, Paxton’s past seems to be catching up with him. In 2023, he was acquitted by the Texas Senate on 16 articles of impeachment, which included serious charges like corruption, abuse of power, and misuse of official information. These issues may explain his weaker standing in a general election matchup against a Democrat like Allred. The Republican primary race between Cornyn and Paxton is also heating up. Cornyn, a U.S. Senator since 2002, has gone on the offensive, calling Paxton “a con man and a fraud.” Paxton, in turn, has accused Cornyn of representing “the Bush wing of the GOP” and failing to support Donald Trump’s policies fully. Paxton is running on a platform that pledges to “champion President Trump’s legislative priorities,” as stated on his campaign website. Could Texas Finally Elect a Democratic Senator Again? It’s been 33 years since Texas last sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. That was Robert Krueger in 1993—and his tenure lasted only a few months. Since then, Republicans have dominated statewide races. But shifting demographics, urban growth, and national political polarization have slowly made some parts of Texas more competitive. Beto O’Rourke, another well-known Democrat in Texas, has also hinted he might join the race. During a recent town hall in Denton, he said, “If it comes to pass that this is what the people of Texas want... then yes, I will.” O’Rourke previously lost the 2022 Texas gubernatorial race to Governor Greg Abbott and also ran a close race against Ted Cruz in 2018. As of now, the field remains wide open. John Cornyn has not officially declared he won’t run again, but he faces stiff opposition within his own party. Allred has yet to confirm his candidacy, but polling shows he might have the best chance of flipping the seat blue—especially if he faces a controversial figure like Paxton. What Could a Democratic Senate Win in Texas Mean for 2026? The stakes are high. As of now, the U.S. Senate is made up of 53 Republicans and 47 Senators who caucus with Democrats. Flipping a seat in Texas would be a major win for the Democratic Party and could be key in regaining the Senate majority during the 2026 midterms. If Democrats gain control, it could severely limit the legislative agenda of a potential Trump second term or any Republican-led administration. Control of the Senate would allow Democrats to influence judicial appointments, confirm or block Cabinet members, and steer federal policy on healthcare, immigration, and more.FAQs:Q1: Who is leading in the Texas Senate race 2026 poll? Democrat Colin Allred leads Ken Paxton by 15 points, says GOP poll. Q2: When was the last time Texas had a Democratic Senator? Texas last elected a Democratic Senator in 1993.