The Runcorn and Helsby by-election has garnered significant attention, primarily due to the circumstances surrounding its initiation. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Mike Amesbury, a former Member of Parliament who was convicted earlier this year for an assault on a constituent. This scandal has marked a pivotal moment in the areas political landscape.

On February 27, 2023, Amesbury received a 10-week prison sentence for his actions, promptly being taken to HMP Altcourse in Liverpool. However, after spending just three nights in incarceration, a judge decided to suspend his jail term for a period of two years. Facing immense pressure to resign from the House of Commons and following his loss of the Labour whip after his arrest in the previous autumn, Amesbury ultimately decided to step down.

The Runcorn and Helsby constituency consists of the towns of Runcorn, Frodsham, and Helsby, in addition to various villages and a significant rural expanse. Notably, the constituency is composed of 22% built-up areas, 60% rural land, and 14% classified as water or wetland. It has a population of approximately 93,520 residents, with a demographic breakdown showing that 21% are under the age of 18, 57% fall within the 18-64 age bracket, and 21% are aged 65 and over.

Interestingly, Runcorn and Helsby is a relatively new constituency, having been established specifically for the general election that is set for July 2024. The constituency comprises over half (51.2%) of the territory from the previous Weaver Vale constituency, with 37.1% sourced from Halton, alongside portions from three other ex-constituencies: Ellesmere Port and Neston, Eddisbury, and City of Chester. In the 2024 general election, Amesbury won the seat for Labour with a notable 52.9% of the vote, securing a majority of 14,696 votes. Reform UK followed in a distant second, acquiring 18% of the vote, while the Conservatives captured 16%. The Green Party and Liberal Democrats received 6.4% and 5.1% of the votes respectively, with two smaller parties collectively earning 1.4%.

Historically, Amesbury served as the Labour MP for Weaver Vale from June 2017 until the constituency was dissolved before the latest general election. He had successfully taken the seat from Conservative Graham Evans, who had held the position since 2010. The Halton constituency, created in 1983, was consistently dominated by Labour, with Derek Twigg serving as MP from 1997 until he shifted to represent Widnes and Halewood.

This upcoming by-election is particularly significant as it represents the first electoral test for Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Since Labour ascended to power, a considerable amount has transpired, including the announcement of several tax increases in the most recent Budget and ongoing negotiations with President Trump concerning world trade and the situation in Ukraine. According to Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool, given that Runcorn and Helsby is considered one of the safest Labour seats, it would be an impressive achievement for any other party to claim victory here. Nevertheless, recent polls suggest that Reform UK may enter the by-election with a sense of optimism, especially after securing second place in the previous election. The Conservatives, who finished third last time, are also keen to demonstrate signs of electoral recovery, having been in close competition with Reform UK.

A total of 15 candidates have declared their intention to contest the by-election. The candidates standing, listed in alphabetical order, are: Catherine Anne Blaiklock (English Democrats), Dan Clarke (Liberal Party), Chris Copeman (Green Party), Paul Duffy (Liberal Democrats), Peter Ford (Workers Party), Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party), Sean Houlston (Conservatives), Jason Philip Hughes (Volt UK), Alan McKie (independent), Graham Harry Moore (English Constitution Party), Paul Andrew Murphy (Social Democratic Party), Sarah Pochin (Reform), Karen Shore (Labour), John Stevens (Rejoin EU), and Michael Williams (independent).