EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the latest edition of a weekly newsletter on the crazy world of New Jersey politics. You can subscribe here. Six weeks to go ... It’s crunch time, Jersey. We’re now less than six weeks — or exactly 38 days — from when primary voters will pick the Democratic and Republican nominees in the packed race to become the state’s next governor. That means the 11-person, open-seat battle to succeed term-limited Democrat Phil Murphy — already the state’s most contentious gubernatorial fight in four decades — is really heating up. Rivals are ripping into each other. Your TV sets are being jammed with ads. Debates are just around the corner. And a new poll last week, the first in months, showed two very different primaries. One candidate is running away with it on the Republican side — get ready to remember how to pronounce Chet-a-relli again — and even Trenton’s top minds are scratching their heads over how the tossup on the Democratic side will shake out. So now’s a good time to check the election’s temperature with my sources. Here are the big questions as we get closer to the June 10 primary ... 1. Is it really anyone’s game on the Democratic side? There are six contenders, all with big credentials and all staking out a different lane. Last week’s Rutgers-Eagleton poll found U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill is in front at 17%. But next up is Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop at 12%. And the others — NJEA President Sean Spiller (10%), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (9%), U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (9%), and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney (7%) — are not far outside of the margin of error. “I think any one of these candidates could tell a story these numbers could be favorable for them,” said Ashley Koning, the poll’s director. Here’s another key number to watch: More than 30% of the party is undecided in what’s expected to be a low-turnout affair. “That says this is not done by any means,” said Patrick Murray, a veteran pollster. Which isn’t a surprise, considering this is the first governor’s race without the “county line” primary ballot system that used to allow party bosses to practically hand-pick nominees. 2. Isn’t Mikie Sherrill the frontrunner? The Navy pilot and former federal prosecutor turned congresswoman is backed by much of the state’s Democratic establishment. And so far, she has led in almost every poll. But I hear some supporters have worries. One Democratic insider said there’s “angst” over her campaign, with fears she’s focusing too much on her personal narrative, leaning too much to the middle, and trying to avoid mistakes that could her haunt her in the general election at the risk of upsetting a very active Democratic base right now. There’s also concern her bid lacks substance compared to her opponents. Sherrill’s camp pushes back. They note she leads the pack even in rivals’ internal polls, despite only recently starting to spend money and roll out TV ads. And one Republican insider said she’s the Democrat that Republicans least want to face, thanks to her résumé and her support in red-leaning Morris County. “The race is tighter than Sherrill supporters want,” a Democratic insider told me. “But you still have yet to see anyone take over her position.” 3. Is Steve Fulop rising? The Jersey City mayor, running a grassroots-styled campaign openly critical of machine politic, was the talk of the race this week after finishing second in that poll. As one Democratic insider said: “Fulop has momentum.” And he’s talking about it. Fulop, ever active on social media, posted on X that he’s “excited” by the survey, predicted an upset, touted a new ad knocking party bosses and vowing to raise the state’s minimum wage to $18, and literally counted the ways he believes he’s better than Sherrill. That prompted a sharp response from Sherrill’s campaign manager, Alex Ball, saying the congresswoman is living “rent free in his head.” Then, when Sherrill tweeted to Republicans, “See ya in November,” Fulop called her “Tammy Murphy 2.0.” That’s a nod to Jersey’s first lady, whose U.S. Senate candidacy fizzled last year despite being backed by top Democrats. (Fulop, you may remember, yanked his endorsement of Murphy.) Insiders note the Democratic establishment is united in one way: They don’t like the mayor and will mobilize against him. “The long knives are out for Fulop,” one said. 4. Wait. Wasn’t Ras Baraka the one surging? The Newark mayor caught a lot of Dems by surprise, firing up a large part of the party’s hungry base with his Donald Trump-bashing, happily liberal campaign. But he’s fighting Fulop for the primary’s left lane and hasn’t raised as much money. One Democratic operative joked that if only Baraka had Fulop’s organization, he’d be “a good threat” to Sherrill. Really, the source said, the mayors “steal votes from each other.” Baraka’s camp downplays it all, noting Fulop isn’t polling far ahead despite having loads of money and Baraka’s fundraising is about to pick up. Baraka also had one of the week’s biggest moments, going after Sherrill and party leaders directly during a fiery speech in the congresswoman’s hometown of Montclair. He argued Democratic leaders aren’t doing enough to help Black and brown residents and asked the party to “move away from its tone-deaf policies” when it comes to equity. “We’re gonna treat this as a two-person race,” one Baraka ally told me. 5. Surely the other three Democrats aren’t still in it? Don’t count anyone out. Sean Spiller, the teachers union prez, is an “absolute threat” because he can mobilize the NJEA’s pool of 800,000 educators, one Democratic insider noted. Congressman Josh Gottheimer, meanwhile, is telling everyone who’ll listen he will lower taxes and is a fundraising machine who can spend big on ads in the coming weeks. (Did you see the new one of a shirtless, AI Gottheimer “boxing” Trump?) And former state Senate President Steve Sweeney has name recognition throughout South Jersey, which could boost him in a splintered primary. One Republican insider also texted me that while Fulop and Baraka were attacking Sherrill, mail-in votes have been pouring in from Camden and Gloucester counties. “It’s a good week to be Steve Sweeney,” the source said. 6. Is the Republican race wrapped up? Former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli — the man who almost upset Murphy in 2021 — led this year’s five-person GOP primary with a whopping 42% in last week’s poll. That’s 24 points ahead of former radio host Bill Spadea. And other opponents are in single digits: Sen. Jon Bramnick (4%), contractor Justin Barbera (3%), and former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac (0%). Ciattarelli is already focused on the general election, taking shots at Sherrill. “Jack is in the driver’s sat right now,” one GOP operative told me. By contrast, top rival Spadea is “trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together,” as one Democratic insider put it. Spadea supporters — and even some Ciattarelli backers — say there’s still time to close the gap. They also dismiss that poll’s methodology as too broad and note Spadea will hold a rally next month with General Michael Flynn, the one-time Trump national security adviser who is popular with the MAGA crowd. “I think anybody who is dismissing the Republican primary as over does so at their own peril,” one Spadea ally said. Bramnick, the lawmaker in a distant third place, argued a lot can change in the home stretch. “I feel as if voters are now focusing,” he said. The wild card: Trump. An endorsement from the president — which both Spadea and Ciattarelli have aggressively been courting — could change the game. 7. Will Trump actually get involved? That’s the biggest question on the GOP side. It’s Spadea’s best hope for a surge and could be the final nail if the president backs Ciattarelli. Jack’s camp also appears fine if Trump sits it out, which effectively would knee-cap Spadea while giving Ciattarelli a little distance from Trump in the general. The latest I’ve heard is Trump may hold his powder. But every Republican operative is quick to point out: The president is tough to predict. 8. So what’s next? There are four debates, two on each side, over the next three weeks, starting with the GOP on Wednesday, May 7. Democrats follow on Monday, May 12. And expect the attacks on Sherrill to multiply. “It’s going to get uglier,” one Democratic insider told me. A very sad goodbye Our state and the journalism world got heartbreaking news this week. Matt Arco, a veteran political reporter for NJ Advance Media and one of the most respected journalists in New Jersey, died suddenly at age 39. Matt was the top chronicler of Christie’s time as governor and presidential candidate. And I spent more than a decade working alongside him covering all things Jersey politics, including Phil Murphy’s administration. When we were setting up the launch of this newsletter, Matt was an invaluable guide and integral resource. After all, he set the tone with his indispensable Chris Christie newsletter, “What Makes Christie Run?” (Yes, we even stole the name.) But more than anything, Matt was one of my very favorite people and best friends. I’m proud we often worked as a team. Matt was witty, smart, supportive, kind, inquisitive, and remarkably good at sniffing out B.S. — the bad cop to my good cop, which was so critical to our coverage. He cared deeply about the state and holding its leaders accountable. And he knew how to write what was important in a concise way. We had an unusual bond, venturing out into a largely silent world to write endless posts on the COVID pandemic in 2020. And those of us who cover the craziness of Jersey politics will never forget one particular moment of chutzpah — when a bunch of us reporters waited in the hot Trenton sun for state leaders to emerge from negotiations during a state budget standoff in 2019. Matt wore shorts to the occasion. We spoke almost every day. I looked up to him. I learned from him. He made everyone laugh. I valued his advice and courage. I am lucky to have known him. And I will miss him dearly. What a massive loss. In his honor, here’s my favorite piece we wrote together, about the infamous 2017 state government shutdown. Stay tuned to NJ.com. All 11 governor contenders visited our Woodbridge offices in recent weeks, and we asked them a series of identical questions on camera. We’ll share the results next week.Jersey has a pair of star U.S. senators, Cory Booker and Andy Kim, who hold a lot of sway with Democrats. But both said this week they won’t endorse in the party’s crowded gubernatorial primary. That’s even though Booker’s successor as Newark’s mayor, Ras Baraka, is vying to become the state’s first Black governor. Still, party insiders said they’re not shocked because there’s no upside for Booker — a national face in the party — getting involved in tight, bitter race, running the risk of alienating swaths of Democrats. And for Kim, there’s the optics of putting his thumb on the scale one year after ending the county line.This week’s most biting policy argument in the Democratic governor’s primary pitted Ras Baraka against Mikie Sherrill. In a big speech, Baraka called out Sherrill for a comment she recently made about erasing racial disparities in education. Sherrill said one way is to make sure to “have our children reading by the third grade.” Baraka blasted that as “tone-deaf” and said it would be “considered racist” if a Republican said it. A source noted that when Baraka unveiled a literacy plan in Newark two years ago, he said “children lacking proficiency by third grade are up to six times more at risk for leaving school without a diploma.” Kabir Moss, a Baraka campaign spokesman, shot back, saying Sherrill’s ideas are "already being implemented in Newark" under Baraka and that what Sherrill suggested was that the wealth gap wouldn’t exist if children could read at that level. Moss called that " a deeply flawed and backwards view." He added Baraka is “saying the opposite, that the racial wealth gap, created by generations of systemic inequality and exclusion, is why so many children are denied equal access to education in the first place.” For her part, Sherrill responded to Baraka’s speech by saying “there is deeply rooted systemic racism in New Jersey ... that demands immediate action” and it will be a “top priority” if she’s elected.Baraka and Beyoncé? The pop megastar recently kicked off her “Cowboy Carter Tour” — and the Newark mayor (and longtime poet) is playing a role. The show starts with an old audio clip of a young Baraka reciting a poem. Baraka wrote on X that he is “honored” and “grateful to share a vision in this American moment.”That wasn’t the only music moment in the governor’s race this week. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, another Dem contender, caught some flack last year when he shared a doctored all-Bruce Spotify Wrapped. But a real member of the E Street Band — Steven Van Zandt — appeared in person Wednesday night to endorse Gottheimer. “This is the guy that’s going to keep what’s best in Jersey and guide our state to be even better in the future,” Van Zandt said.Justin Barbera, an unknown Burlington county contractor running a longshot campaign in the Republican governor’s primary, surprised everyone by gathering the more than 2,000 signatures needed to get on the ballot. So how did he do it? “Without knocking on doors,” he said. Barbera — pronounced Bar-bear-a, like the animators — said he rode public transit several times a day, lobbying voters at rail and bus stations. He also chatted up customers at Walmart. Now, Barbera said he’s campaigning without much money, having raised a mere $400 so far. Another Republican gubernatorial contender, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, polled at 0% in last week’s Rutgers poll. But Kranjac, a MAGA loyalist, wins the award for the world’s most optimistic response to laying a goose egg. His campaign said Kranjac actually “surged to double digits and is on pace to win a commanding plurality.” The reasoning: Rutgers, he said, “routinely under-counts pro-life, pro-Trump support by 10 to 15 points.” Chris Christie, the former federal prosecutor and Jersey governor who went from Trump friend to Trump foe, was recently asked to weigh in on the controversial arrest of a Wisconsin judge last week for allegedly helping an undocumented resident evade federal authorities. During an appearance on ABC, Christie said it’s a situation where “everyone is acting badly” but questioned whether indicting her was the right reaction. That led MAGA world to snap at Christie on social media, sharing memes based on his famous beach-chair photo and making several jokes about his weight.Monmouth University shuttered its renowned polling institute last month, but its longtime leader, Patrick Murray, started his own firm: StimSight Research. Murray said he’ll conduct polling and focus groups for private companies, trade associations, nonprofits, and advocacy groups, giving them insights on how to “communicate and interact with their constituencies.” But that doesn’t mean he’s done polling politics. “I might get into the political end of the pool, as well,” Murray said.Anyone who experienced the ’80s and ’90s can tell you Jamaica is known for bobsledding. But hockey? Not quite. So how did Jamaican-born Sean Spiller, the teachers union leader running for the Democratic nod for governor, become a hockey player? After relocating to Jersey, young Spiller and his father were driving around on a hot day with no AC in the car. They passed an arena in Morristown with a big sign out front: “Free skating.” “My dad was like, well, it’s gotta be cold in there,” Spiller recently told me. Thus, a lifetime love for sticks and skates was born. “I always busted my dad’s chops. I’m like: ‘Dad, that was the most expensive free skating you ever did.” Spiller went on to play hockey at Rutgers University. And his brother Richard even played in the AHL. We reported last week on NJ.com that Gov. Phil Murphy was approached to become a candidate for Rutgers’ vacant presidency but quickly said no. One insider close to the governor noted Murphy doesn’t need the money, wouldn’t want to live on campus, and loves traveling too much to be tied down at the state university. Still, Murphy has only eight months left in his governorship. So what are his plans come January? Murphy recently told me he isn’t sure — and those who know him say he’s not lying. Speaking of Murphy, I was driving home from a Jersey Shore BlueClaws game with my family last weekend when I spotted a striking message on a digital sign outside of the Howell Lanes bowling alley on Route 9: “Governor Murphy, Don’t Tax Bowling.” That’s a nod to how the governor has proposed removing a sales tax exemption on several sports and entertainment activities, such as bowling, batting cages, and laser tag. Critics call them “fun taxes.” The question is whether Murphy’s fellow Democrats in the state Legislature will agree to the increases. I hear that’s not likely, though state budget negotiations have yet really ramp up. What others are saying Some Jersey stories in the news: NorthJersey.com columnist Charles Stile wrote about what could be a sleeper issue in the governor’s race: restoring cost-of-living — or COLA — increases for retired public workers.My colleague Spencer Kent explored whether Newark Mayor Ras Baraka can ride momentum in the Democratic primary to becoming New Jersey’s first Black governor.Terrence McDonald, editor of the New Jersey Monitor, documented a fight over transparency with Steven Fulop, the Democratic Jersey City mayor running for governor.There’s a lot of money pouring into the governor’s race. Colleen O’Dea of NJ Spotlight dove into it and why it’s difficult to untangle.Insider NJ looked at how Morris County Republicans are a little worried about Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the frontrunner for the Democratic nod.A few weeks after his record-breaking speech, U.S. Sen. Cory Booker was at it again, holding a sit-in on the Capitol steps to protest Republicans’ federal budget plan. Read more from NBC News.U.S. Attorney Alina Habba announced a new task force on “election integrity” in Jersey, as reported by the Press of Atlantic City.U.S. Rep. Donald Norcross was released from the hospital after nearly a month as he recovers from a gallbladder infection, as reported by the New Jersey Globe.What does Jersey’s congressional delegation think of President Donald Trump‘s first 100 days? Read more from the Globe.A new task force report laid out recommendations for how the state can combat gambling addiction. Read more from my colleague Jelani Gibson on NJ.com. As Ocean County recovers from a big wildfire, critics have fears about forest service cuts from the Trump administration, as reported by Politico.There is also concern that federal funding cuts from Trump’s administration could put Jersey’s preschool program at risk, as reported by NJ Spotlight. Tweet of the week Did you know? This has been a a very campaign-themed newsletter. And there’s also uncertainty about whether lawmakers will agree to another tax-hike proposal from Gov. Phil Murphy on alcohol. So let’s look back at a tale that combines politics and booze. In 1920, Prohibition was in full swing, and Edward Edwards, a Democratic state senator from Hudson County, wasn’t happy about it. Though not a drinker himself, Edwards ran a bid for governor that a newspaper called the “Applejack Campaign” — a nod to an apple brandy nicknamed “Jersey Lightning.” That’s because Edwards promised to make New Jersey “as wet as the Atlantic Ocean.” It worked. He ended up beating a Republican who also had a name that sounded like a comic book character: Newton Bugbee. About this newsletter Welcome to What Makes Jersey Run, a weekly newsletter for anyone interested in the always-lively world of Jersey politics and America’s most important governor’s race in 2025. Join NJ.com’s award-winning political reporter Brent Johnson as he gives you the inside look at what really happens behind the scenes in a state rife with scandal, controversy, and power players (some of whom wind up in jail). Brent, who has been covering the craziness in Trenton for more than a decade and knows who pulls the strings, will deliver his exclusive insights on the state of politics and the big campaign right to your inbox. How to subscribe This is an exclusive newsletter for NJ.com and our loyal subscribers. You can subscribe here. About the author Brent Johnson is a Central Jersey (yes, it’s real) native who has spent the last 12 years covering politics for NJ.com, winning multiple journalism awards along the way. Before that, he covered local news and sports, including a stint writing about James Madison University athletics in Virginia. He graduated from Rutgers University and sings in a Jersey alt-rock band, The Clydes. Here’s a bit more about him. You can follow him on X at @johnsb01 and email him at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com.