On Friday, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) experienced a significant decline, closely following trends observed in the global bullion market. This drop can be attributed to a combination of factors, notably the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly with the Israel-Iran ceasefire appearing to hold, along with positive sentiments surrounding global trade. As a result, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has diminished.

The MCX gold rate for August futures concluded the session lower by ₹1,563, marking a decrease of 1.61% to settle at ₹95,524 per 10 grams. Throughout the trading day, gold prices reached a low of ₹94,951, reflecting a drop of ₹2,136 or 2.2% from the previous close of ₹97,087. Over the course of the week, the MCX gold price has plummeted by 3.61%, indicating a troubling trend for investors in precious metals.

In addition to gold, MCX silver prices for September futures also saw a downturn. The price of silver decreased by ₹1,468 or 1.36%, closing at ₹1,06,429 per kilogram. During the trading session, silver prices dipped to a low of ₹1,05,380, compounding the negative sentiment in the precious metals market.

In international markets, Comex gold fell over 1.5%, trading below $3,270 per ounce. This marks the second consecutive weekly loss for gold, with an overall decline of nearly 3% for the week, which illustrates a broader trend affecting precious metals globally.

According to Jigar Trivedi, a Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities, the decline in gold prices is primarily due to reduced geopolitical risks and an increasingly optimistic outlook on global trade, which have both contributed to a lower appetite for safe-haven assets like gold. He indicated that the tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been a significant factor, while comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick regarding the nearing completion of trade frameworks with China and other nations further fueled a risk-on sentiment in financial markets.

Additionally, the US dollar fell by over 1.5% to below 97.3, marking its lowest point since February 2022. This decline is largely influenced by rising expectations of interest rate cuts, prompted by a dovish congressional testimony from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Looking ahead, the price of gold is expected to be influenced by several key factors, including the release of economic data from the US and Europe. Trivedi highlighted that upcoming events such as the progress in US trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff decision deadline, the European Central Bank (ECB) Central Bank Forum, and important US macroeconomic data—such as Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing, and Services PMIs—will be critical in shaping gold prices in the near future.

As for the outlook on gold prices, Trivedi suggested that the market is likely to remain under pressure with a bearish bias. He pointed out that Comex gold has established key support levels at $3,230 - $3,200 per ounce, while resistance is noted at the $3,350 mark. For MCX gold prices, forecasts suggest a decline towards ₹94,800 - ₹94,000 per 10 grams as bearish momentum persists.

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