Good morning. The state of Texas faces a heartbreaking crisis following catastrophic floods that have claimed the lives of 129 individuals, including at least 27 children and counselors from Camp Mystic located in Kerr County. This tragedy has not only devastated families but has also left more than 160 people unaccounted for, prompting officials to caution that the death toll may continue to rise.

As of Sunday morning, adverse weather conditions, including heavy rains and strong winds, forced the cancellation of some search operations across the region. The flash floods, which have swept through significant areas of central Texas, are being characterized as one of the worst natural disasters in the state's history. At Camp Mystic, a staggering 6.5 inches (16.5 centimeters) of rainfall was recorded in just three hours, leading to rapid and life-threatening conditions.

The economic repercussions of this disaster are equally grim. As reported by private forecaster AccuWeather, the estimated cost of the damage could range between $18 billion and $22 billion (£13.2 billion to £16.2 billion), highlighting the extensive destruction that has occurred not only to lives but also to infrastructure.

This environmental catastrophe strikes at a time when the climate crisis is worsening. The impact of the Trump administration's cuts to federal agencies has left crucial services, such as the National Weather Service, severely strained. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is also grappling with continual threats of funding cuts, which raises serious questions about the preparedness for such disasters.

Despite the scale of this disaster, there has yet to be a substantial public reckoning regarding climate change or the declining state of essential public services. Instead, various conspiracy theories have surfaced in the aftermath of the floods, diverting attention from the root causes of these events.

To gain deeper insight into the unfolding situation and the political response, I spoke with Oliver Milman, the Guardian US environment reporter, who has been closely monitoring the developments.

The heavy rains began in the early hours of July 4, coinciding with the United States' Independence Day celebrations. Milman notes that what began as a small storm stalled in an area where two rivers converge, resulting in catastrophic rainfall accumulation. This caused rivers to overflow, leading to sweeping destruction of homes and vehicles, tragically impacting those at Camp Mystic.

Milman elaborates on the factors contributing to the disaster's severity, emphasizing that the ongoing climate crisis plays a pivotal role. As the planet heats up due to human reliance on fossil fuels, the atmosphere holds more moisture, resulting in increasingly severe weather events. One meteorologist explained to Milman that the current atmosphere resembles a giant sponge, saturated with moisture. Consequently, intense precipitation events have become more frequent, particularly in the eastern United States, while the western regions face drought.

Statistics from the Environmental Protection Agency reveal that among the ten heaviest single-day precipitation events in U.S. history, nine have occurred since 1995. Milman points out that Texas has been experiencing a rise in such extreme weather events, a trend likely to persist as global temperatures continue to rise.

The geography of central Texas contributed to the floods' catastrophic impact. With its hilly terrain, canyons, and rivers, the area is known as “Flash Flood Alley.” When substantial rainfall occurs, the water quickly runs off, exacerbating flooding conditions. Milman described the situation as a tragic sequence of events that unfolded rapidly, leaving many in danger.

Another contributing factor to the disaster is the political context surrounding the previous administration's cuts to federal agencies involved in weather prediction and climate research. Milman explained that the Trump administration made sweeping efforts to reduce the federal workforce, which included firing scientists and weather forecasters. This left many National Weather Service offices critically undermanned, impacting their ability to issue timely warnings about impending storms.

In the aftermath, Democrats have initiated calls for investigations into whether these cuts, enforced by the Department of Government Efficiency, once led by Elon Musk, played a role in this disaster. While the Trump administration has countered these claims by attributing the floods to natural causes, concerns regarding the adequacy of resources and the coordination of emergency services have been raised.

Specifically, a warning about dangerous flood conditions was issued at 1:14 AM on July 4, yet there remains ambiguity about why emergency services were not mobilized adequately to respond. Many local officials have begun questioning the effectiveness of communication and coordination efforts, given the gaps created by budgetary cuts.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who supported the “big, beautiful bill” that included significant cuts to social services, is also facing scrutiny for his role in the funding cuts that may have left local emergency services unprepared. Notably, this legislation eliminated a $150 million fund intended for improving weather forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—a move Cruz personally endorsed just days before the floods struck.

In the wake of this devastation, reactions from Texas residents have ranged from shock and disbelief to an outpouring of support for those affected. Local officials and citizens are now grappling with questions regarding the adequacy of the warnings issued by the National Weather Service and the actions taken by local governments in preparation for this disaster.

Interestingly, some far-right groups have taken to central Texas under the guise of “disaster relief,” with videos circulating that highlight their efforts to provide aid while also emphasizing a prioritization of specific demographics, sparking controversy.

Amidst the chaos, conspiracy theories are proliferating among certain political circles, questioning the nature of the floods and suggesting nefarious weather manipulation. Such theories, often propagated by rightwing influencers, divert attention from the real issue of climate change. Milman points out the irony that while people suggest deliberate weather modification, the real culprit is the climate crisis itself—something that is fundamentally reshaping weather patterns globally.

As the situation continues to evolve, the impact of personal beliefs and political affiliations on public perception of natural disasters remains apparent. Milman observes that many individuals seem entrenched in their views, with little evidence suggesting this tragic event will shift opinions on the climate crisis or governmental accountability.

In summary, the catastrophic floods in Texas stand as a chilling reminder of the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and robust emergency preparedness. As the community mourns its losses, questions about accountability and resilience remain critical for the future.